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2014 > UK > Climate / Weather > Flooding (I)
On the Thames,
centuries of history
tell a less apocalyptic flood story
Flood plains are a natural part of rivers,
and recent
inundations
are no more extensive than in the past,
says one expert
Sunday 16 February 2014
The Observer
Terry Marsh
This article appeared on p29 of the Main section section
of the Observer on Sunday 16 February 2014.
It was published on the Guardian website at 00.05 GMT
on Sunday 16 February 2014.
A British fixation with the weather seems to link readily with
a pessimistic view of our vulnerability to flooding. This has been underlined
through an outstandingly wet winter, with often protracted floods. For those
directly affected, in Somerset especially, this has been a harrowing experience,
and the impact on transport, agriculture and commerce has been severe.
Many believe that the cluster of major floods in the early years of the 21st
century herald much worse as global temperatures continue to rise. Research by
the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and British Geological Survey supports a more
nuanced view.
Tidal flooding is expected to increase as thermal expansion of the oceans,
supplemented by meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets, increases sea levels.
The risk of flooding from groundwater may also increase if winter rainfall rises
appreciably.
However, the outlook in relation to fluvial (river) flooding is much less clear
cut. This can be well illustrated by flow patterns in the Thames, for where the
recent flooding has been most extensive. The Thames we have one of the longest
continuous flow records in the world. Systematic flow measurement began at
Teddington in 1883; there is also a wealth of documentary evidence relating to
historical floods.
Since the 1880s, temperatures in the Thames basin have risen substantially (by
about 1.3C) and there is a clear tendency for the frequency of high flows to
increase. However, there is no corresponding trend in those flows that result in
the most extensive and damaging floods.
Why is this? Snowmelt (sometimes over frozen ground) has contributed to a
considerable proportion of the worst floods in the Thames basin. These include
March 1947, when the most extensive flooding across England and Wales in the
20th century threatened lives and livelihoods. Prior to the 20th century,
snowmelt-aggravated flood events were more common; extreme examples include
1809, when a number of bridges across the Thames were destroyed, and, on
necessarily more sketchy evidence, 1593, when a rapid thaw resulted in Oxford's
Christchurch Meadows being flooded to a depth of 13 feet. As winter temperatures
rise, such circumstances are likely to be encountered with increasing rarity.
While in some mountain regions, (the Alps or the Rockies, for example) rising
temperatures have produced more rapid melt rates from snow and glaciers, adding
to the flood risk, generally, the lack of trend in flood magnitudes for the
Thames reflects the pattern across much of the world.
For the Thames there is a second mitigating factor in relation to flood risk;
one that reflects the river's character and history. The river has been used for
milling, fishing and navigation for many hundreds of years: the abundance of
weirs hindering navigation and exacerbating flooding.
In the modern era, the disastrous 1947 flood stimulated a river engineering
programme (including channel realignments, dredging and improvements in weir
design) to increase the capacity of the Thames, particularly through its middle
and lower reaches. When completed, the river could accommodate more than 30%
more flow within its banks. Thus, while peak flows exhibit little trend, peak
river levels – the primary cause of flooding – decreased appreciably through the
20th century.
In the tidal reaches, construction of the Thames Barrier in 1981 rendered very
unlikely any repetition of the last major flooding of central London, in winter
1927-28, another snowmelt-aggravated flood which saw 14 fatalities and 4,000
people made homeless.
For England and Wales as a whole, it is estimated that a repeat of the 1947 flow
patterns, without the flood alleviation measures now in place, would inundate
more than 200,000 properties. It is a tribute to the effectiveness of our flood
defences that, after the wettest nine weeks on record for many parts of southern
Britain, the number affected by flooding remains below 10,000 – although this
total is likely to increase following the recent rainfall.
The UK's continuing vulnerability to extreme weather patterns has been heavily
underlined this winter. Our rivers have provided a timely reminder that flood
plains are part of their natural province and, at irregular intervals, will be
inundated.
Population growth and development on floodplains has increased the numbers
exposed to flood risk but improvements in medium-term weather forecasting, more
appropriate land management strategies and the extension of novel flood defence
techniques (the use of demountable flood barriers, for example) together with
better flood-proofing of housing imply that, with appropriate funding, the more
apocalyptic future flood risk scenarios will not be realised.
Terry Marsh is leader
of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme
On the Thames, centuries of history tell a
less apocalyptic flood story,
O, 16.2.2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/16/
river-thames-flows-reveal-flood-risk
Somehow, the terrible floods in Britain
have brought out the best in people
When my train drew to a halt I expected cursing and tutting
and violence – but what happened instead
was really rather heartwarming
Sunday 16 February 2014
20.00 GMT
The Guardian
Stuart Heritage
This article was published on the Guardian website
at 20.00 GMT on Sunday 16 February 2014.
A version appeared on p5 of the G2 section
of the Guardian on Monday 17 February 2014.
It was last modified at 00.05 GMT
on Monday 17 February 2014.
As a borderline hermit who lives on top of a hill, I've
managed to avoid the worst of this spectacularly cack weather. I haven't been
forced to travel to and from my home in council-assigned boats like the people
of Somerset. I haven't watched in impotent horror as water has crept up through
my floorboards like the people of the Thames Valley. I still have electricity,
unlike much of Wales.
The worst thing to have happened to me is that the shortcut I take to the
supermarket has got a bit slippy, so I have to walk the long way round. It adds,
conservatively, about 45 seconds to my journey. One day a film will be made of
my plight, and Morgan Freeman will win an Oscar for his sensitive portrayal of
me.
It's hard to understand just how horrible it must be for those seriously
affected by the floods and storms. It's impossible to even begin to imagine the
unrelenting Canutish hopelessness of fighting off one storm while knowing that
three more are cracking their knuckles on the peripheries of the Atlantic.
Instead, I've watched the cycle of familiar images and noises scroll past on the
news. Submerged cars. Fogged-up camera lenses that give reports the look of a
mid-period Barbara Cartland portrait. Giant arrows on weather maps, covering the
country like a prisoner's uniform. But one thing has stood out above everything
else. One phrase that's been repeated again and again, by reporters and
villagers and strangers. Stay safe.
The sincerity of those words, when you hear them, is shocking. We live in a time
of thoughtless have-a-nice-days and we-appreciate-your-calls, a time when people
only say "take care" because it's three syllables shorter than "Yeah, whatever,
bye". But a well-aimed "stay safe" cuts through everything. I found that out for
myself last week.
The start of this column was an exaggeration. In truth, I did have the briefest
of brushes with Wednesday's storm. I was heading south from Bradford just as the
wind had picked up enough to batter tiles from roofs. I'd seen Virgin Trains'
hilariously doom-laden "ALL CUSTOMERS TO ABANDON TRAVEL" tweet, and jumped on a
train back to London before East Coast could pull the same stunt.
Ten minutes in, we came to a halt and the lights went out. The train ahead of us
had hit a tree that had fallen onto the line. We were stuck. In Wakefield. Which
I'm sure is a lovely town when it's not part of a pitch-black meteorological
armageddon. Unless it's always like that. This was my first visit. I don't want
to judge.
Perhaps I spend too much time on the internet, where the only acceptable
reaction to anything is blind rage, but I fully expected everything to kick off.
I expected cursing and tutting and violence. What I didn't expect was for
everyone to immediately start checking that everyone else was OK. Whether they
had phones, or needed to borrow chargers, or were comfortable enough. Or for
Gary, the train's announcer, to be so disarmingly warm and transparent about the
situation that my entire carriage audibly fell more and more in love with him
whenever he told us how doomed we all were. Again, the phrase repeated more than
any other that night, on that broken-down train or any of the replacements we
ended up on, was "stay safe".
I got home five hours late. Which is an embarrassingly minor inconvenience
compared with the flat-out misery of what people were going through 50 miles
away in Crewe, where the station's roof blew off completely and then caught
fire. But it was a microcosm. There was adversity beyond anyone's control and,
for whatever reason, it brought out the best in people. Most people, that is – I
held on to my buffet car sandwich because it was the last one and I wanted to
auction it off for personal gain if things got hairy later, but that's only
because I'm a unsalvageably reprehensible human being. Everyone else instantly
thought of others before themselves. It became vitally important that people
were OK.
You can see this instinct kicking in all over the country. The doctor and the
landlord who opened a makeshift surgery in the honeymoon suite of a Staines pub.
The convoy of farmers taking aid to Somerset on a fleet of tractors. The tens of
thousands of sandbags being filled and distributed by hundreds of volunteers.
The catalyst for all this sudden compassion sucks beyond belief, but the
compassion itself is beautiful to witness.
Things, eventually, will go back to normal. The waters will recede and the power
will return. Questions will be asked and fingers will be pointed. Steps will be
taken to make sure this never happens again. Those steps will be blamed when
this does happen again. And, over time, we'll fall back into our selfish old
ways. That's OK, because indiscriminate compassion without end is creepy and
annoying. But for now, if you happen to be up against it, sincerely, stay safe.
Somehow, the terrible floods in Britain
have brought out the best in people,
G, 16.2.2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/
terrible-floods-britain-best-in-people
Flooding crisis likely to get worse,
warns David Cameron
Even though storms ending,
PM says volume of rain over past few weeks
means groundwater levels will keep rising
Sunday 16 February 2014
01.46 GMT
theguardian.com
This article was published on the Guardian website
at 01.46 GMT on Sunday 16 February 2014.
David Cameron has warned that the flooding crisis is likely to
get worse even though Britain is set for a respite from the devastating winter
storms.
The prime minister said while the weather was due to improve, the sheer volume
of rain over recent weeks meant groundwater levels would keep rising in many
places.
The comments came as power firms struggled to reconnect tens of thousands of
homes after the latest downpours and high winds.
Despite weather forecasters predicting an "improving picture" with lighter winds
and less rain, the Environment Agency said parts of southern, south west and
central England remain at risk of flooding due to high river levels following
the recent heavy rainfall.
Cameron, who visited flood-hit Chertsey in Surrey before chairing the
government's Cobra emergency committee on Saturday, said the next 24 hours would
be vital as river levels were set to rise again.
"Thankfully, it does appear that we will see less rain and wind over the next
few days," he said.
"However, after so much rain over recent weeks, groundwater levels remain very
high and in many places will continue to rise."
The EA said it had closed the Thames Barrier for a 16th consecutive time to help
lower river levels.
Paul Leinster, the chief executive of the EA, said; "We continue to see the very
real and devastating impacts that flooding can have on communities and business.
We know the distress that flooding can cause and are doing everything we can to
reduce the impacts.
"Despite an improving forecast the risk of flooding will continue for many
communities in southern parts of England over the next few days. We ask people
to remain vigilant and take action where necessary.
"Environment Agency teams are working round the clock to support local
authorities' relief effort. We have also teams out working to reduce the risk of
flooding to communities and have deployed over 50 temporary defences.
"Over 1.3 million properties have been protected since the start of December
thanks to Environment Agency defences and the Thames Barrier will close for a
record 16th consecutive time today."
On Saturday night, yellow "be aware" weather warnings of icy driving conditions
were in place for most of the UK. Across the south of England, Wales and the
Midlands there were also warnings of heavy rain.
The Met Office forecaster Charlie Powell said temperatures could drop to -3C
overnight, then Sunday is expected to be dry for most areas.
"It will be markedly different than it has been in the last few weeks," he said.
Meanwhile, the Environment Agency chairman, Chris Smith admitted he "could have
done better" during the flooding crisis and said the country needs to take a
"serious look" at how it prepares for more extreme weather.
He told LBC Radio: "I think there are certainly some things that I could have
done better.
"I think we could and should have worked harder to persuade partner
organisations in Somerset to undertake some of the longer term work that's
needed down there which we were wanting to start last year but we weren't able
to get the other bits of money that we needed on to the table.
"I should have worked harder to do that – I probably should have gone down there
earlier than I did.
"But on the whole I've been actually very proud of the way that the Environment
Agency's staff have responded and in the process have managed to protect 1.3
million homes around the country that would otherwise have flooded if our
defences and our work hadn't been in place."
He added: "Now, we need to have a serious look as a country at how we prepare
ourselves for that and how we build our flood defences."
The Ministry of Defence said more than 3,000 servicemen and women were committed
to helping the flood relief effort with "thousands more at a state of high
readiness" to assist if requested.
The Energy Networks Association said the number of homes without power had
fallen to 65,409 on Saturday evening, with 600,000 customers reconnected since
Friday's storms.
Flooding crisis likely to get worse, warns
David Cameron,
G, 16.2.2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/16
flooding-crisis-worse-david-cameron
Three people killed
as storms continue
to batter southern UK
Extreme weather continues to wreak havoc,
with 16 severe flood warnings in place
and major disruption
to road and rail networks
Saturday 15 February 2014
16.47 GMT
theguardian.com
Kevin Rawlinson and agencies
This article was published on the Guardian website
at 16.47 GMT on Saturday 15 February 2014.
It was last modified at 16.47 GMT
on Saturday 15 February 2014.
It was first published at 10.09 GMT
on Saturday 15 February 2014.
Three people have died as strong winds, heavy rain and huge
waves battered southern Britain overnight, aggravating the problems already
caused by widespread storms and flooding.
A cruise ship passenger died after 80mph winds whipped up freak waves in the
English Channel and a woman was killed when part of a building collapsed on to a
car in central London.
Bob Thomas, 77, died in hospital on Friday night. He was gathering hens at his
home in Caethro, Caernarfon, when a tree fell and hit him.
More than 30 people had to be rescued by emergency services and the army from a
seafront restaurant in Milford on Sea, Hampshire, after wind-blown shingle
shattered windows and the sea flooded it.
Lymington coastguard, fire services and the army rescued 32 people from the
Marine Restaurant in Milford on Sea, Hampshire, at 10pm on Friday, evacuating
them in an army vehicle. Hampshire police said there were no serious injuries.
Newhaven lighthouse is battered by waves Newhaven lighthouse is battered by
waves. Photograph: Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images
A 35ft wide and 20ft deep sinkhole opened near housing in Hemel Hempstead on
Saturday morning. Police evacuated residents while engineers tried to prop-up
adjacent buildings.
There is major disruption across Britain's road and rail networks, with hundreds
of trees uprooted across roads and rail tracks. Many train services have been
cancelled.
The Environment Agency and emergency services continue to battle with the latest
instalment of the worst winter storms in living memory.
Sixteen severe flood warnings are in place, issued for coastal communities from
Cornwall to Hampshire, Gloucester and the Thames Valley, where rivers remain at
their highest levels for decades.
Communities across the country have been using sandbags and makeshift barriers
to protect their homes and businesses from the floodwaters. On Friday the Duke
of Cambridge and his brother, Prince Harry, joined in the emergency relief as
they helped fill sandbags in Datchet, Berkshire.
The Queen also offered assistance to farmers in Somerset. A Buckingham Palace
spokesman said: "The Queen is supporting Somerset farmers affected by the
flooding on the Somerset Levels by contributing feed and bedding from the royal
farms at Windsor."
Forecasters are warning of more heavy rainf and gale-force winds on Saturday.
Between 10mm and 20mm (0.4in - 0.8in) of rain is forecast to fall on southern
England, while the south-west and south Wales could get up to 40mm (1.6in), the
Met Office said.
Winds have wrought fresh havoc, with gusts of up to 80mph hitting exposed parts
of the south coast.
In central London, a woman died and three other people were injured when the
fascia of a building collapsed on to a car opposite Holborn underground station
at 11.05pm on Friday, the Metropolitan police said.
Firefighters freed the driver – a 49-year-old woman, later named by police as
Julie Sillitoe – and a 25-year-old man who was trapped in the back seat, but
Sillitoe, a minicab driver, died at the scene.
Next of kin have been informed.
The man suffered leg injuries, and he and a 24-year-old woman, who managed to
free herself from the rear of the car, were taken to hospital with non
life-threatening injuries.
A soldier helps a tree surgeon remove a fallen tree A police officer looks on as
a soldier helps a tree surgeon remove a fallen tree in Egham, west of London.
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
A fourth person, believed to be a male passerby, was also injured and taken to
hospital, London ambulance service said. A further 10 people were evacuated from
nearby buildings as a precaution.
An 85-year-old man died on Friday after the 22,000-tonne Marco Polo cruise ship
was hit by a freak wave in the English Channel.
Water crashed through a window, injuring a number of people. The man was
airlifted off the vessel along with a woman in her 70s, but later died. A number
of other passengers received minor injuries and were treated on board.
Waves of up to 10 metres reportedly threatened to cut off Portland in Dorset,
while people in Portsmouth have been receiving hoax calls calling for them to
evacuate their homes amid flooding fears, Hampshire police said.
Trees are reported to have fallen on trains near Mottingham in south-east
London, and near Winterslow in Wiltshire, but no one was hurt in either episode.
All train services west of Plymouth have been cancelled, while a landslide near
Redhill has hit the line south of the capital.
South West Trains has cancelled nearly all of its services until it is safe for
them to run, while First Great Western is advising passengers not to travel and
has speed restrictions of 50mph across most of its network.
According to the Energy Networks Association almost 450,000 homes and businesses
suffered power cuts overnight. Of these, 310,000 had power restored overnight
but there were still 141,822 cut off on Saturday morning. Almost 900,000
properties have suffered power cuts this week.
Meanwhile, two walkers who went missing on the UK's highest peak in poor weather
conditions have been found safe. A search was launched on Friday after the pair
became disorientated at the summit of Ben Nevis in the Highlands.
Police Scotland confirmed that the walkers have been traced "safe and well".
Three people killed as storms continue to
batter southern UK,
G, 15.2.2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/15/
two-die-storms-batter-southern-uk
The government has to act now
on climate change
Floods and extreme weather will become more intense,
so Britain needs a long-term plan.
The time for buck-passing is over
Friday 14 February 2014
15.02 GMT
The Guardian
John Gummer
This article was published on the Guardian website
at 15.02 GMT on Friday 14 February 2014.
A version appeared on p33 of the Main section section
of the Guardian on Saturday 15 February 2014.
It was last modified at 00.07 GMT
on Saturday 15 February 2014.
The harrowing pictures of flood victims, ruined property and
stranded stock have brought home the damage the forces of nature can wreak even
in our gentle and temperate climate. We must expect this extreme weather to
become more frequent, made worse by the warming of the atmosphere. The UK's
floods, Australia's record heat, the intense cold in the US, and the
unparalleled force of Asian storms remind us that the real issue is intensity.
We have to prepare, not just for too much water, but too little; not just for
rain but for record tides and winds. The cost of adaptation to the effects of
climate change is significant and so far hardly recognised.
It's all too typical of our short-term perspectives that so many have
concentrated on easy answers and facile blame. We won't solve our problems by
indiscriminate dredging or sacking the chairman of the Environment Agency. Nor
is it a simple matter of resources. We have to have a programme of long-term
adaptation that enables the UK to cope with these fundamental and irreversible
changes.
Of course, some of that will involve increased spending on flood prevention and
coastal defence. John Krebs, who chairs the adaptation sub-committee of the
climate change committee, estimates a £500m shortfall in spending over the four
years to 2015, if we are to avoid flood risk increasing over time. It would be
utterly unacceptable to take foreign aid funds from the poorest people on Earth,
as some have now suggested, instead of finding the proper resources for flood
prevention. I entirely support the prime minister in saying that we are a nation
rich enough to provide the funds to deal with flooding.
However, beyond capital spending, we will need much more fundamental change.
Both flooding and the effects of drought are made significantly worse by some
modern farming practices. The compaction of the soil means less absorption of
rainfall. When the rainfall is too little, the aquifers are not sufficiently
replenished. When it's too much, the run-off swells the rivers and makes
flooding worse. With so much more land being drained, the quantity of water
driving down our watercourses is much increased and simply overwhelms their
carrying capacity. The historic methods of flood alleviation – of wash meadows
and other soft defences – have largely been abandoned and we are not encouraging
the kind of cultivation higher up our rivers that can help to hold back the
water.
But the built environment too will be affected. All those front gardens
concreted over and the fashion for hard landscaping mean the natural absorption
of water in our towns is much reduced. The result is that sewerage systems are
overwhelmed. Worse still is our arrogant insistence of building on flood plains
so that the natural mechanisms of flood alleviation are inhibited. So, if we are
properly to face up to the flooding threat, someone has to be in charge. At the
moment, no one is ultimately responsible. Local authorities and the Environment
Agency, Defra, the Department for Transport and the Department for Communities
and Local Government all have a finger in the pie. The water companies, the
Highways Agency, Network Rail and the internal drainage boards are also crucial
to a solution. Before people try to make party political points, it's been like
this for 20 years.
Back in Margaret Thatcher's time, the Treasury resisted a single system for
coastal defence and then the last government's reorganisation made a muddled
system significantly worse. No party has been prepared properly to count the
cost of adaptation to climate change. Nicholas Stern's warning should remind
this government – and all future ones – that the old ways are no longer
adequate. We have to act now to protect Britain against the effects of the
changes – the flooding, storms and drought that will become more frequent and
severe.
We have to start anew. From my experience both as minister of agriculture and
secretary of state for the environment, I have long believed we should have a
single department of planning and land use. This would take in all of Defra and
add planning from DCLG. The resultant department would directly take control of
the coastal defence element in the Environment Agency and then use coastal local
authorities as their agents, thus unifying the present fragmented jurisdiction.
The Environment Agency would remain as present, but it would report to the new
department as it now does to Defra. Such a department would be responsible for
implementing the necessary long-term programme. The buck would stop there and we
might finally get something effective done.
The government has to act now on climate
change,
G,
14.2.2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/14/
climate-change-floods-government
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